本研究主要針對台灣與韓國TFT-LCD面板股價，取其代表性的公司股價-台灣為友達光電股價與奇美電子股價，韓國則為樂金電子股價與三星電子股價，分別以總體經濟面及產業特性面因素做探討，分析影響面板股價的因素。本文實證結果發現，影響面板股價的變動因素主要為總體經濟與產業特性因素，且其間並存在有長期均衡的關係。我們也同時發現，在總體經濟面因素方面，加權股價指數以及消費者物價指數為主要帶動面板股價的影響主要因素。再者，在產業特性面因素方面，面板股價受到面板價格高度的影響，也就是影響面板股價的因素來自於基本面的變化亦是重要的判斷指標。簡而言之，產業基本面變化的掌握，對於未來面板股價變化趨勢的判斷，將有十分的助益。本研究結果提供投資人，除了觀察總體經濟面對於面板股價的影響變化之外，掌握產業基本面的脈動，亦可以對於股價的漲跌，有預先反應的現象，投資人可以此作為判斷投資面板股的一個先期判斷指標。 The research discusses how macro economy and industry characteristics affect the stock price of TFT-LCD panel manufacturers in Taiwan and Korean. The leading companies are AUO in Taiwan & CHIMEI, and LG & Samsung in Korea. We found that macroeconomic factors and industry characteristics are main variable factors and there is a balanced relationship between both in the long run. On the macroeconomics side, Weighted-average Stock index and Consumer Price Index drive the change in stock price. On the other side, the price of panel board highly influences the stock price, which means fundamental factors are important in determining the stock price of panel manufacturers. To sum up, industry fundamentals are helpful in identifying the trend of stock price. The research concludes that, in addition to macroeconomic factors, industry fundamentals are leading indicators for investors to make investment decisions.
