虛擬社群被視為網?經濟時代最重要的知?分享平台之一，也因此吸引許多學者投入相關研究。然而，經由廣泛蒐集與分析目前已發表的249篇有關虛擬社群的?文，研究者發現尚有一些重要議題鮮少被提及。我們可把虛擬社群?比為一個自組織的生態系統，整個生態系統?是一個虛擬社群，內有有機體（社群成員）與無機質營養物（分享出?的知?情報等）由外帶入這個自組織系統，藉由能?（成員活動）讓無機質營養物在有機體內傳遞與組合（知?分享與創造）。因此?以生態系、有機體、無機質營養物與能?等四個元素，搭配誕生、發展、死亡等三個階段，?將這些867篇與虛擬社群有關的研究?加以分?，我們可發現在生態系死亡與有機體死亡、也就是探討虛擬社群死亡與成員退出虛擬社群的相關研究方面可?是付之闕如，然而這?個問題無疑是重要的問題。因此本研究依此訂出一個??期的研究計畫。第一?將探討虛擬社群的死亡因素。由於虛擬社群的獨特虛擬特性，一般只能以個案方式?研究幾個個案以歸納死亡因素，要進?大規模的驗證性研究有其難?。我試圖以宏觀的角?進一步引入組織生態學的觀??導出幾個與虛擬社群死亡的可能相關因素，並以一個虛擬社群平台上的2063個子虛擬社群為對象，依照組織生態學所導出的變??衡?這些社群，最後再將編碼後的資?以資?探勘的分?技術找出虛擬社群的死亡相關因素與存亡法則。第二?則探究影響虛擬社群成員退出意圖的因素。為?將研究問題簡化，我們將研究範圍劃定為興趣?的虛擬社群。由於此?社群成員都是自願且長期的休閒?與，符合所謂認真休閒的定義，因此我們以休閒管??域的認真休閒觀點導出影響社群成員退出意圖的因素，並以線上問卷驗證之，期能藉此找到決定性因子。 Virtual communities (VCs) are deemed important knowledge sharing vehicles and thus attract many scholars conducting various kinds of related researches. However, after detailed scrutiny of 249 VC related journal and conference papers, I found some important questions remain unanswered. There is an analogy between a VC and an ecosystem. If we categorized all of these 249 papers by four components of an ecosystem and three life stages, two types of researches, that is, death of ecosystems and organisms, are almost absent. In other words, mortality of VCs and dropout of VC members are important research questions unresolved. This finding inspired my two-year research program. In the first year, I’ll investigate the factors in relation to the demise of VCs. Several variables are induced from concepts of organizational ecology. 2063 VCs will be analyzed and codified according to these ecological variables. Finally, chi-square test and classification technique of data mining will be applied to derive the rule of survival or decay of VCs. I’ll probe into reasons influencing member’s intention to quit a VC in the second year. VCs of interest are targeted to clarify the research scope. Since members voluntarily and chronically participate in a VC of interest for leisure purpose, I employed the notion of serious leisure and derived several possible determinants accordingly. Online questionnaires will be delivered and collected for further analysis. I hope determinants of VC members’ dropout intention will be thereby identified.
