台灣資訊電子產業最適國際化策略之模擬

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题名:	台灣資訊電子產業最適國際化策略之模擬
其它题名:	Simulating the Optimal Strategies of Internationalization of Taiwan’s IE Industry
作者:	黃俊傑 Huang, Chun-Chieh
贡献者:	林灼榮 Lin, Jwu-Rong 東海大學國際貿易學系
关键词:	主成份分析法;配對法;國際化;短期國際化劣勢;長期國際化優勢 Principal Component Analysis;Matching Approach;Internationalization;Short-Run Liability of Internationalization;Long-Run Advantage of Internationalization
日期:	2009
上传时间:	2011-03-07T07:39:59Z (UTC)
摘要:	本文旨在利用2000年至2007年間台灣資訊電子（Information Electronic, IE）產業上市廠商資料，衡量廠商國際化程度對短期獲利能力（ROA）長期企業價值（Tobin’s Q）之影響。在實證模型上，首先利用主成份分析法(Principle Component Approach)，將海外投資比率、外銷比率與海外營運據點數等三變數，萃取成單一國際化指標，再將全部樣本依國際化程度分成高度、中度及低度三族群。其次，利用債信評等七指標，作為配對法(Matching Approach)之篩選準據，將高度-中度、高度-低度等兩族群進行配對，篩選出營運屬性類同之樣本群。最後，使用Panel Data之計量經濟模型推估廠商國際化對營運績效之衝擊效應，並模擬建構台灣IE產業最適國際化策略。綜觀本文實證結果，發現：（1）台灣IE廠商，國際化對短期績效呈現倒S型關係，對長期績效則呈現S型關係。（2）多角化無論對於短期績效或長期績效皆呈現負向關係；但若廠商同時進行國際化與多角化，對於短期績效及長期績效皆呈現正向關係。（3）國際化指標對短期ROA之邊際貢獻，則呈現U型特性，其最低點（門檻值）所對應國際化指標為70.936；反觀國際化對Tobin’s Q之邊際效果，則呈現倒U型，其最高點（門檻值）所對應國際化程度為79.611；若與國際化之樣本平均值為52.109相比較，發現台灣IE產業在提高國際化程度時，呈現短期國際化劣勢與長期國際化優勢之抵換關係。（4）若進一步以門檻值模擬國際化策略組合，發現台灣IE產業若要擺脫國際化對短期績效之負向劣勢，海外投資比率、外銷比率與海外投資據點，可在0.173倍~4.028倍之增幅進行策略組合；反觀要達到長期企業價值極大化，則三者可增加之幅度，約介於0.200倍~7.326倍之間。（5）最有利之國際化指標，應由70.936提高至79.611，在此範圍內，短期ROA與長期Tobin’s Q之邊際效應，分別提升2.153%及29.839%；而對應三種國際化策略可調整範圍，分別為18.925%~61.607%（海外投資比率）、71.358%~99.901%（外銷比率）及4.200~26.182（海外投資據點數）。 The research explores, during period of 2000 to 2007, the relationship between the degree of internationalization (DOI) and operating performances (ROA and Tobin’s Q) of Taiwan’s Information-Electronic (IE) industry. Initially, we integrate, applying the principal component analysis, three internationalization indexes, overseas assets ratio（FA）, export ratio（ER）and overseas branches（FC）into single index (IN). According to DOI, We divide the samples into three groups, high (HG), median (MG) and low group (LG). We then employ matching approaches to match samples of HG-MG and HG-LG with similar characteristics. We construct FE, RE and OLS to examine impacts of internationalization on operating performances. Finally, we simulate, basing on empirical results, the optimal strategies of internationalization. The results confirm that: (1) There’s an inverted-S-shaped relationship between IN and ROA, and S-shaped relationship between IN and Tobin’s Q. (2) Furthermore, we find that diversification will decrease ROA and Tobin’s Q. However, firms’ ROA and Tobin’s Q will increase if they engage in internationalization and diversification simultaneously. (3) Further, we find out the relationship between IN and the contribution margin rate of ROA is U-shaped, and the minimum point (Internationalization Threshold) of IN is 70.936. The relationship between the IN and the contribution margin rate of Tobin’s Q is inverted-U-shaped, and the maximum point of IN is 79.611. Comparing to the average IN of sample is 52.109, we dominate there is a trade-off between the short-run and long-run operating performances when the IN increases. (4) In terms of the internationalization threshold, we simulate the optimal strategies of internationalization. The finding suggests Taiwan’s IE industry should increase FA, ER and FC about 0.173 ~4.028 times to get rid of the short-run liability of foreignness and increase about 0.200~7.326 times to maximum the long-run operating performance. (5) The optimal IN should be increased from 70.936 to 79.611, and the margin rate of ROA and Tobin’s Q increase 2.153% and 29.839%, moreover, FA, EX and FC should be increased about 18.925%~61.607%, 71.358%~99.901% and 4.200~26.182.
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