本研究係探討一個應用於海軍攔截入侵的簡化模式之發展。本模式之輸入參數包 括影響範圍的大小、入侵的初始速度及偵察後的速度、友軍的速度及偵察入侵進入防線所需 時間等。俟參數輸入後，模式可計算出於各入侵地點及入侵角攔截入侵之可能性及所需時間 。本模式亦允許入侵有利用變換速度及方向，以採取迴避行動的選擇。模式的電腦程式係以 標準 BASIC 寫成，易於應用及操作。 同時，本研究更進一步就影響範圍大小、入侵、速度及偵察時間等三項參數，進行敏感度分 析。由分析結果可知，三項參數中以偵察時間的影響最小。 This paper discusses the development of a simplified intruder interceptor model with naval applications. The input parameters include size of area of influence, intruder's initial speed, intruder's speed after detection, friendly unit's speed, and time delay before notification of intruder's entry. Given the input parameters, the model computes the probability of and time to interception for various entry points and entry angles. It also includes an option of allowing the intruder to take evasive action by changing speed and direction. The model's computer program is written in standard BASIC, as easy-to-use, general purpose computer language, so as to allow ease of application and use. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed on three of the input parameters: size of influence area, intruder's speed, and time delay. It was found that of the three, time delay is the least important.
