影響台灣地區汽車銷售量因素之探討

Tunghai University Institutional Repository > 管理學院 > 高階經營管理碩士在職專班 > 碩士論文 > Item 310901/20297

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://140.128.103.80:8080/handle/310901/20297

Title:	影響台灣地區汽車銷售量因素之探討
Other Titles:	The Determinations Of Automobiles Sales in Taiwan
Authors:	吳佳龍 Wu, Chia Lung
Contributors:	王凱立 Wang, Kai Li 東海大學管理碩士在職專班
Keywords:	誤差修正模型;共整合;汽車產業;多元迴歸模型 VECM;Cointegration;Automobile industry;multi regression analysis
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2013-01-03T05:54:47Z (UTC)
Abstract:	本研究從總體環境層面探討影響台灣地區汽車銷售量之因素，包括由總體經濟、產業特性及市場制度結構面因素分析影響程度外，並進一步針對製造商來源為國產或進口商之銷售量，以及國內三大個別品牌廠商銷售量－和泰豐田(Toyota)、裕隆日產(Nissan)及中華三菱(Mitsubishi)，探討廠商間影響層面之差異。本文首先檢視國產與進口商或國內三大個別廠商銷售量間影響層面分析上，實證結果顯示，國產汽車與進口汽車銷售量之間，與個別競爭廠商Toyota、Mitsubishi和Nissan汽車銷售量之間，雖然個別廠商間因競爭關係，相對國產與進口車銷售量間存在較為明顯排擠效應，但長期下均具有共同趨勢，即使短期偏離亦能回到其共同的長期均衡狀態。其次，進一步藉由多元迴歸分析總體環境層面差異上，實證結果發現：在總體經濟面因素方面，台灣工業生產指數對各類汽車銷售量除進口車外皆有負向影響；台股加權股價指數僅對國產汽車銷售量有正向影響效果；放款基準利率或失業率增加則導致各類汽車銷售量的減少。在產業特性面因素方面，進口汽車可能較國產車具有省油或節能減碳或油電混合的功能，油價對進口汽車銷售量相對有正向影響；而鋼板價格對各汽車銷售量則有負向影響；另外，農曆7月鬼月效應對Toyota汽車銷售量相對有較明顯的負向影響結果。在結構面因素方面，市場衝擊房貸危機/全球金融危機對各汽車銷售量皆有負向影響；免貨物稅對國產汽車銷售量有負向影響，說明國產車並未因減徵貨物稅而受益；奢侈稅對進口汽車銷售量有正向影響，與預期相反，隱含消費者對高級進口車的偏好不受景氣及課征奢侈稅影響，或消費者趁奢侈稅實施前提前購買高級車。關鍵字：汽車產業、共整合、誤差修正模型、多元迴歸模型 This study investigates the determinants of auto sales in Taiwan from the overall dimensions, including the macroeconomic factors, industry properties and market mechanism factors. Moreover, it explores the difference in sales at the firm level not only by distinguishing the domestic manufacturers and importers but also involving three popular individual brands i.e., Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi into consideration. First, at the firm level, the empirical result suggests the long-run cointegration relationship between domestic auto sales and imported auto sales as well as among the three domestic auto brands despite evident crowding-out effect for the former and severe competition among the latter, which both cause the deviation from the long-run equilibrium at the short term but whatever reverted to the equilibrium in the long term. Second, at the overall level, the results based on multivariate regression analysis are summarized as follows: in terms of macroeconomic factors, Taiwan’s industrial product index exerts negative influence on the various types of auto sales except imported ones; Taiwan weighted stock index has a positive effect solely on the domestic auto sales. The increases in interest rates or unemployment rates lead to reductions in all types of auto sales. In terms of industry properties, the oil price has a relatively positive effect on imported auto sales since the latter enjoys the advantage of fuel-efficient or energy saving and carbon or hybrid functions over the domestic cars, while the steel price has a negative effect on all car sales. In addition, the ghost month effect of July in lunar calendar has an obvious negative impact on Toyota auto sales. In terms of market mechanism factors, various types of auto sales are negatively correlated to the shocks of mortgage crisis or global financial crisis. The tax-free policy exerts negative effect on the domestic auto sales, which indicates the latter are not benefitted from the tax-reduction. In contrast to the expectation, luxury tax has a positive impact on imported auto sales, which suggests two possibilities: either the consumer preference for the advanced imported cars is not affected by the economic situation and tax levy, or the consumers have purchased the advanced imported cars in advance prior to the implementation of the luxury tax.Keywords: automotive industry, cointegration, VECM, Multi Regression Analysis
Appears in Collections:	[高階經營管理碩士在職專班] 碩士論文

Files in This Item:

File	Size	Format
100THU00026014-001.pdf	1539Kb	Adobe PDF	3127	View/Open

Loading...