| Abstract: | 以現今注重顧客需求為導向的環境下，成功的經營企業就是在顧客需求和存貨持有成本之間找到平衡，特別是在民生消費性用品(Consumer Packaged Goods；CPG)產業，需求不穩定往往影響著企業存貨的不足亦或過剩。而需求預測和促銷預測可以在需求發生前得知大概的需求，藉著預測以決定符合需求的存貨，來減少缺貨和避免存貨過多。而在促銷預測方面，可提供預測基礎去判斷某特定週期和地點的存貨持有單位，並且結合促銷規劃來規劃未來需求以及補貨來執行需求規劃的採購。促銷會改變需求，增加需求不確定性，而進行促銷活動後的需求量該如何估算而得是必要探討的問題。一般而言，企業會預測未進行促銷活動的需求量，再加上某個比例當作預測促銷量；然而，一旦進行促銷活動，會對需求量增加更多不確定性。因此，本研究期望藉由針對CPG產業的下游通路商旗下各個零售店所銷售之暢銷品項，將促銷活動納入考慮，發展出適合CPG產業的促銷預測法(Promotion Forecasting；PF)。並且當往後進行促銷活動時，將可依據各通路所販售之品項不同強度的促銷因子設定，使其更易於掌握進行促銷活動時的預測銷售數量。同時，藉由有效益的促銷策略(銷售數量、價格)，將可幫助決策人員在決定促銷提案與行銷資源分配時的參考。
In a customer demand-oriented environment, to be successful companies must find a balance between customer demand and cost of inventory. Particularly, demand instability often causes the lack or excess of inventory for companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) industry. However, promotion forecasting and demand forecasting will enable a company to keep stocks in line with customer demand before hand, avoiding or reducing shortage and excess of inventory. Based on promotional forecasting, decisions can be made regarding the quantity of stock keeping units (SKU) in a specific period and place, coupled with promotional planning to plan for future demand and conduct product planning and replenishment planning accordingly. Promotions will change the demand and increase demand uncertainty also, after carrying out the promotional activities, how to assess the demand quantity is an issue to be explored. In general, a company will predict the quantity of demand prior to any promotional activities, then, it will time this demand quantity with a promotional multiplier assessed from experience to form the sales promotion forecast. However, once promotional activities have been carried out, demand uncertainty will increase. Therefore, this study will take promotional activities into account and expects, through the CPG industry's downstream access to sales of fast moving products in various retail outlets, to develop a Promotion Forecasting (PF) approach appropriate for companies in the CPG industry. When companies conduct promotional activities in the future, it will become easier for them to know in advance after promotion the approximate amount of sales will be according to various promotional factors assessed for each product. By the way, through effective promotional strategies (sales volume, price), decision makers will be much helped in setting up promotional proposals and, thereafter, allocating marketing resources. |
