本論文以現金流量折現法，計算48家台灣半導體上市公司理論股價，結果顯示有三項顯著變數影響理論股票價值與實際股價之差異，公司規模過小、長期投資占總資產比重過高及董監持股質押率過高，易使市場投資人高估公司股價。反映出投資人對規模小的公司成長性、投資過度密集的公司過度樂觀，及忽略公司治理的潛在風險。 This study uses the method of “discount cash flows” to estimate the theoretical prices of 48 semi-conductor companies of Taiwan. The results show that variations between the theoretical and market prices are substantial. Investors tend to over-estimate companies with smaller size, greater capital expenditure, and higher board pledge ratio. The results imply that investors are over-optimistic about the growth of small and capital intensive companies, and neglect the potential risk of governance mechanism.
