本文以(1)Blanchard(1981)封閉經濟、物價固定與產出調整的股票市場宣示效果模型，(2)曹添旺、陳憶萱(2002)資本不完全移動之延伸性小型開放經濟浮動匯率制度模型，(3)廖培賢(2006)引入財富效果的雙元浮動匯率制度模型為基礎，仿照Laban and Larrain(1994)、Obstfeld(1994a)與廖培賢(2008)(2010)股票與債券呈現不完全替代的假設，使用第一代體制變革的分析方法來討論：一旦經濟體系遭逢股票市場需求面不利衝擊，貨幣當局為了阻擋產出水準進一步下滑，進而利用增加貨幣供給的措施將產出水準釘住在某一固定水準的情況下，相關總體經濟變數所呈現的動態調整風貌。研究結果發現：(1)股票市場需求面不利衝擊的爆發一旦帶動產出水準節節壓低時，則貨幣當局所能忍受的產出門檻下限水準不僅與體制崩潰時機有關，其也是決定體制是否會崩潰的重要關鍵樞紐因素。(2)一旦貨幣當局所能忍受的產出門檻下限水準介於期初的產出水準與新的長期均衡產出水準中間時，則(A)「流動性效果」與「直接效果與紅利效果之和」的相對大小，(B)貨幣當局所能忍受的產出門檻下限高低，(C)股票與債券兩種資產的資產替代性之相對大小三者，在決定體制崩潰過程中相關總體經濟變數調整型態的重要決定因子中占了舉足輕重的角色。 The theory of this paper is developed based on three studies: the output fix and the price float on a closed economy from Blanchard (1981)、capital is not fully mobile extension on the small open economy floating exchange rate system model from Tsaur et al. (2000) and introduction the wealth effect in dual floating exchange rate system model from Liao (2006). And then we imitate that stocks and bonds do not completely replace the assumption from Laban and Larrain (1994), Obstfeld (1994a) and Liao (2008) (2010). We use the first generation of institutional change to discuss methods of analysis. The monetaries authority blocks the level of real output to further decline once the economy system is hit by the adverse shock from the demand side of the stock market. Monetary authorities will take advantage of the increase in nominal money supply to fix the level of real output on a level of style.We want to find that the relevant of macroeconomic variables’ dynamic adjustment. Some key findings are summarized.First, the adverse shock from the demand side of the stock market’s outbreak effects that the monetary authorities are able to bear the real output minimum threshold level not only with the collapse of the output system timing but also decision output system crashesthe key pivotal factor once the level of real output is steadily drove down.Second, once the monetary authorities can bear minimum threshold level between the middle of the beginning of real output level with the new long-run equilibrium level of real output,than(A) rlative size between「the effect of liquidity」 and「the sum of the direct and the bonus effect」(B) monetary authorities can tolerate lower level of real output threshold(C) the asset substitution between stocks and bonds,both of three elements are the most important key points to decide the relevant of macroeconomic variables’ dynamic adjustment when the output system collapse.
