基因於(1)物價目標區的既有文獻，?如:Leiderman and Svensson(1995)、陳淑華 (1996)、Bernake and Mishkin(1997)、廖志興(2000)、Lai and Chang(2001)、Fang and Lai(2002)、黃嘉貞(2003)、黃君瑋(2005)、?嘉興(2005)、吳建興(2008)與王錦鋒(2008) 等，在討?貨幣當局宣佈實施物價目標區政策對相關總體經濟變?是否具有安定效果的實是面(positive perspective)議題;(2)最適目標區間(band)的既有文獻，?如:黃君瑋 (2005)、吳建興(2008)與王錦鋒(2008)等，在討?經濟體系所遭逢的隨機干擾發生變動，貨幣當局一旦企圖追求社會??損失的者極小化的前提下，又該如何挑選最適目標區間寬窄的規範面(normative perspective)議題時，刻意忽?:(1)世界上各國的外匯市場目前大?業已有遠期外匯市場的存在，(2)遠期外匯市場與股票市場?屬具有濃厚投機氣氛特質的市場，(3)一國的商品市場與該國的股票、即期外匯、遠期外匯、貨幣與債券這五種?融性市場間具有息息相關、密?可分的關係。基於以上的緣由，本文擬選擇結合Eaton and Turnovsky(1982，1984)考?遠期外匯市場的開放經濟一般均衡模型與Blanchard(1981) 兼顧股票市場的封閉總體經濟??架構?特色，進而建構一個可以詮釋商品市場與股票、即期外匯、遠期外匯、貨幣與債券這五種?融性市場互動關係的開放總體經濟模型，在民眾對即期匯?與股價的未?變動同時存在預期與貨幣當局企圖追求整體社會??損失的者極小化的前提下，使用Lai and Chang (2001)、Lai et al.(2011)所開創的目標區??「蜜月效果新圖解法」與陳秀華(2004)、??蓉、戴孟宜、胡士文與廖培賢(2008) 所使用的「最適目標區間新圖解法」，?進?一旦貨幣當局宣佈實施「物價目標區」政策，經濟體系遭逢?如:(1)消費者與廠商對經濟的前景抱持?觀的預期，進而分別增加消費支出與投資支出，(2)政治穩定?大幅提高進而?升廠商投資意願，(3)外國消費者大幅增強對本國出口品的偏好程?，(4)外國大幅提高對本國出口品的進口配額等商品市場需求面有?衝擊(beneficial shock)的干擾時，是否對本國物價、??、即期匯?、遠期匯?與股價等相關總體經濟變?具有安定功效的實是面課題與貨幣當局企圖追求整體社會??損失的極小化時，又應如何選擇最適「物價目標區」間寬窄的規範面議題分析。期望透過本文的發現能夠進一步提供政策制定者與相關題材研究者快速又正確的幫助。 Both Leiderman and Svensson(1995)、Chen(1996)、Bernake and Mishkin(1997)、 Liaw(2000)、Lai and Chang(2001)、Fang and Lai(2002)、Huang(2003)、Huang (2005)、 Lee(2005)、Wo(2008) and Wang(2008) which had analyzed the honeymoon effect of the relevant macroeconomic variables under the price target zones policy and Huang(2005)、 Wo(2008) and Wang(2008) which had analyzed the choice of the optimal price target zones band, but these existing literatures of price target zones policy ignore (1) the existence of the forward foreign exchange rates market (2) both the forward foreign exchange rates market and the stock market own the characteristics of speculatively forward looking (3) the stock market, spot foreign exchange rates market, forward foreign exchange rates market, the money market and the commodity market exhibit the close relationships. Based on the former shortcomings, this research program attempts to develop a stochastic open macroeconomic model which is based on Eaton and Turnovsky (1982, 1984) open economy general equilibrium model of forward exchange rates market and Blanchard (1981) closed economy general equilibrium model of stock market. Under dual expectation economic variables of the spot exchange rates and stock price, we use the “new graphical approach of honeymoon effect”, which is offered by Lai and Chang (2001), Lai et al. (2011) and the “new graphical approach of optimal target zone band”, which is offered by Chen (2004) and Lu et al. (2008) to interpret, what the effect of the commodity market disturbance will be on the possible honeymoon effect of the relevant macroeconomic variables if the monetary authority executes the price target zones policy and how to determine the optimal target zone band if the monetary authority attempts to minimize the social welfare loss.
