台灣DRAM產業發展動態模型之建構

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Title:	台灣DRAM產業發展動態模型之建構
Other Titles:	Modeling the Dynamic Development of the Dram Industry in Taiwan
Authors:	蕭志同,劉仲戌
Contributors:	東海大學經濟學系行政院國家科學委員會
Keywords:	DRAM產業；產業發展；系統動態學 DRAM industry；industrial development；system dynamics
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2014-03-07T07:52:51Z (UTC)
Abstract:	自從1970年美國INTEL公司製造出第一個DRAM之後，亞洲國家中的日本、台灣、韓國就積極投入研發。而台灣DRAM產業經過近30年來的發展，2009年已經成為全球第三大製造國，產值約40億美元。然而隨著近幾年來，市場景氣循環快速變化， 2008年至2009年間的金融海嘯衝擊，使得台灣DRAM產業陷入經營危機。對於政府是否應該投入資金幫助台灣DRAM產業的議題，引發廣泛官方與民間的討論。事實上，台灣DRAM產業的發展是一個複雜且動態的過程，包括政府的政策制定、企業的研發投入、技術母廠的技術支持，這些角色牽涉到資本、技術、產能等等因素的長期累積。這些因素交互作用，形成動態且複雜的發展結構。本研究利用系統動態學，探討台灣DRAM產業發展之系統結構，以增加對其系統行為的了解。最後我們將模擬政府在金融海嘯後，直接投入資金的政策效果。 Ever since Intel manufactured the first DRAM in 1970, the East Asian countries of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have invested a great deal of resources in the research and development of this chip. In 2009, Taiwan’s DRAM industry, after nearly 30 years of development, led Taiwan to become the third largest DRAM manufacturing country in the world with a production value approaching US$ 4 billion. However, with the rapidly changing market business cycle during the last few years and the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009, Taiwan’s DRAM industry has found itself thrown into a crisis management scenario. The issue of whether or not Taiwan’s government should bail out the troubled DRAM industry has triggered a wide range of public debates. In fact, the development of Taiwan’s DRAM industry is a complex and dynamic process that is influenced by government policy, corporate R&D investment, and technical support from partners. Taiwan’s government, DRAM manufacturer and their technical partners play important roles in long-term accumulation of capital, technology, capacity, and other factors. In this study, we used system dynamics to explore the system structure for the development of Taiwan’s DRAM industry, with the aim of increasing understanding of the behavior of such a system. We also simulated the effect of the government policy of direct investment in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Relation:	計畫編號：NSC101-2410-H029-046 研究期間：2012-08~ 2013-07
Appears in Collections:	[經濟學系所] 國科會研究報告

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