房屋購買總價款來自於自備款及銀行貸款，在自備款變化不大的情況下，銀行貸款成數的高低直接影響到可買的房價總額 ; 反之，房屋購買總價款亦是銀行決定可貸金額的最重要因素。近十餘年來國內房價屢創新高，整體銀行貸款總額亦跟著水漲船高，此種現象已引起了政府與民眾的高度關切，為此本文將探討哪些總體經濟因素對房貸金額的變化具有重要的影響力。研究之目的在透過以往文獻及理論的依據來探討台灣人口數、五大行庫放款利率、廣義貨幣供給M2等因素變動與消費者購屋貸款金額變動之間是否具因果關係。研究樣本取自台灣地區1994年至2012年共19年的月資料，期間房地產歷經衰退、蕭條、復甦、繁榮之完整循環週期。本文主要採Sim(1980)的向量自我迴規模型，運用Granger(1969)提出的因果關係檢定方法，進行實證研究。實證結果顯示人口數、M2皆會正向影響房貸餘額，放款利率會負向影響房貸餘額；房貸餘額僅會正向影響人口數，不會影響放款利率及M2。換言之，房貸餘額與人口數為雙向因果關係，與放款利率及M2為單向因果關係。另外房貸餘額的短期的調整速度皆較放款利率、人口數及M2為快，若雙方失衡時需靠房貸餘額來調整至長期的均衡。 The price of house-purchasing is composed with down payment and loan amount. When down payment is limited, the price is decided by loan amount. In the other hand the most important factor deciding the loan amount is the house price. The real estate prices have risen too far in the recently years and the loan is too, this phenomenon will certainly stir public concern. This study is discussing what are the important factors of general economics which affecting loan. The purpose of the study is to examine if there is a causal relationship between consumer house-purchasing loan and population, loan interest rates of five major banks, monetary aggregate M2 in Taiwan.The study uses monthly data for the nineteen-year period from 1994 to 2012 covering different stages of the business cycle from the recession, the depression, the recovery and the prosperity. The vector autoregressive ( VAR) model proposed by Sim(1980) was employed together with the concept of Granger causality (Granger 1969) to validate the causal relationship. The empirical results indicate that population and M2 has a positive impact on house-purchasing loan；loan interest rate exerts negative impact on house-purchasing loan。 The loan merely positively impact on population, but no causal influence on loan interest rate and M2. In other words, the house-purchasing loan has a bidirectional causal relationship with population, but its causal impact on loan interest rate and M2 is unidirectional. additionally , the short-term adjusting speed of loan is faster than rate、populatuon and M2 , between them when each other loss the balance , depending on loan to adjust to the long-term balance .
