近來全球液化天然氣供給及需求的變動加速，目前供應緊張的原因在於 2011 年日本福島核災後的替代需求、及日趨嚴格的環保法令驅使液化天然氣需求量大幅增加。北美頁岩氣新的開採的技術似乎可為全球天然氣帶來龐大的供應量，天然氣進口國是否因此受益?而台灣如何因應這樣的改變等是本研究的重點。本研究首先從全球能源應用的趨勢切入，分析傳統天然氣及非傳統天然氣包括頁岩氣的蘊藏，並分析現有及未來主要天然氣出口國的液化能力，最後審視台灣未來天然氣的用量規劃及現有合約狀態和基礎設施是否可應付未來需求等。研究結果顯示，頁岩氣的衝擊目前雖仍侷限在北美，但將會在2018年後影響其他區域，LNG供應吃緊的狀況則將持續到2015年；放眼未來，台灣應在現有多元的供應來源中取得穩定及相對便宜的天然氣，並需要加快液化天然氣第三接收站的北部尋址及建設的腳步，以舒緩現有液化天然氣營運的壓力；另外就長遠考量，台灣應該進一步研究和大陸或東亞各國合作，架構海底管線運輸俄羅斯或者澳洲豐沛的天然氣及頁岩氣。 Global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry has been undergoing fast changes in terms of both supply side and demand side dynamics. Massive demand for energy options after Japan Fukushima nuclear disaster and stringent environmental regulations are pushing the natural gas consumption to higher level. Shale gas development in North America driven by the technological innovations may massively increase the LNG supply. This study is aimed to explore shale development impacts on global gas market and how Taiwan may catch the benefits from it.This study details the outlook of global energy applications, conversional & unconventional reserves including shale gas and analysis the gas liquefaction capacities for major LNG exporters in current and near future. Meanwhile, Taiwan LNG contracts and facilities are assessed in cooperated future gas consumption plan. Per study, it’s concluded that tight supply of LNG may continue to 2015 while shale gas impacts are limited to North America until 2018. Moving forward, Taiwan needs to seek for more stable and cheaper gas from diverse resources and expedite the establishment of 3rd LNG receiving terminals & facilities in north of Taiwan to release Taiwan from LNG supply constraints. Finally to catch the future stable & lower LNG costs, it is recommended that Taiwan to explore opportunities of cooperation with China and Eastern Asia countries in establishing under ocean pipeline to access the gas supply in Russia or Australia.
