當面臨環境的變遷，企業如何維持競爭優勢，推出新產品為其中的解決方法。然而，新產品上市可能會侵蝕前一代的產品的銷售，整體市佔率是不利的。若前一代產品進入衰退期，才推出新產品，此時競爭者易在新產品尚未擁有穩定成長時，侵蝕新產品的市場。由於現在的產品生命週期越來越短的趨勢，選擇正確新產品進入市場的時機，將能為企業帶來更好的收益與競爭優勢。本研究將過去新產品擴散模型所考量的因素，使用系統動力學因果回饋的思考方式，建構競食效應模型，再藉由賽局理論探討當考慮當競爭者採許降價策略時，模擬與分析新產品合適的上市時機。 The introduction of new products is one of the solutions to the challenges faced by enterprises that are striving to gain a competitive advantage. However, while newly-introduced products may compete for market share with competitors, they also can have an adverse impact on an enterprise’s own existing products. Since the current trend is toward products that have shorter lifecycles, the right decision about the market-entry conditions of a new product can bring immense and profitable success to an enterprise. However, the factors that can lead to the right decision are limited by the issues of concern and by the dynamics among those issues. In this research, we plan to use system dynamics and the game theory approach to construct a market cannibalism+ model that will analyze and simulate the right conditions for the introduction of a new product.
