中文摘要本文的理論架構係以曾生富(2011)、廖培賢與曾生富(2012)這兩篇考量「Holmes-Smyth效果」之封閉經濟、產出固定與物價浮動的股票市場宣示效果模型為基礎，延伸來討論一旦單一總體經濟政策劑量與政策跨時搭配劑量宣告面臨不確定的情況下對相關總體經濟變數動態走勢的影響。結果得到：經濟體系一旦面臨政策當局政策跨時搭配劑量宣告不確定時，股價到底會呈現調整不及、調整過度抑或錯向調整的反應，(i)政策當局所真正亮出的政策劑量底牌是否如同民眾事前所做預期、(ii)「流動性效果」與「股利效果」的相對大小、(iii)「流動性效果」與「股利效果與Holmes-Smyth效果之和」、(iv)貨幣政策與財政政策劑量效果的相對大小、(v)貨幣政策與財政政策宣示效果的相對大小這五項關鍵因素佔了舉足輕重的角色。 AbstractThis paper presents a macroeconomic uncertainty policy increment of intertemporal policy mix announcement model of flexible price and fixed output in a closed economy based on the framework developed by Tseng(2011), Liaw and Tseng(2012). We use the announcement effect approach of rational expectation to discover the influence of stock price dynamic adjustment pattern under the increment uncertainty of intertemporal policy mix? The major findings are (1) whether the actual policy increment of the policy authorities is different from the expectation of the public? (2) the relative magnitude of “the liquidity effect” and “the dividend effect”, (3) the relative magnitude of “the liquidity effect” and the sum of “the dividend effect” and “the Holmes-Smyth effect”, (4) the relative magnitude of the “the policy increment effect between fiscal and monetary policy”, (5) the relative magnitude of the “the policy announcement effect between fiscal and monetary policy” are the key determinants to decide the stock price dynamic adjustment pattern.
