TAPM空氣污染模式於中部空品區之模擬評估分析

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Title:	TAPM空氣污染模式於中部空品區之模擬評估分析
Other Titles:	Evaluation of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) with Monitorings in Central Taiwan
Authors:	黃宗德 Huang, Jung-De
Contributors:	程萬里 Cheng Wan-Li 東海大學環境科學與工程學系
Keywords:	空氣污染模式;繫留探空;臭氧 TAPM;Tethersonde;Ozone
Date:	2005
Issue Date:	2011-05-19T08:24:24Z (UTC)
Abstract:	污染物於大氣中的分布呈現相當複雜之現象，唯有結合密集觀測資料與模式模擬方能對大氣化學與動力過程能有進一步的了解。空氣污染模式TAPM(The Air Pollution Model)，為一個可模擬三維氣象與空氣污染傳輸之巢狀網格模式。近年來已被廣泛應用於國外許多地區，分析當地空氣品質狀況及作為環境影響評估之工具。然而在台灣地區，過去尚未有針對TAPM進行模擬評估分析，有鑑於此，本研究透過中部地區實際監測資料，搭配TAPM模擬進行評估分析，了解其模式模擬之準確性及其應用於台灣地區之適用性。整合中部空品區氣象與空氣品質監測站資料，並挑選研究團隊2002年10月19-24日臭氧事件期間於中部空品區之繫留探空監測數據，搭配TAPM模式進行模擬與驗證。此外，為了解TAPM未來於台灣地區之適用性，亦透過於台灣地區驗証過之第五代中尺度氣象模式MM5(Mesoscale Model, The Fifth-Generation)及台灣空氣品質TAQM(The Taiwan Quality Model)模式結果作一比對分析。研究結果顯示，TAPM模式能有效模擬氣象場與溫度場之分布，風場趨勢與實際值大致相同，各測站模擬之整體風場相關係數約為0.56-0.71，IOA值約為0.61-0.65，溫度場方面模擬呈現良好的一致性，其整體相關係數為0.82，IOA值為0.86。光化污染物模擬方面，模式大致可掌握當日高臭氧濃度產生趨勢但模擬值偏低，偏移誤差平均值約為-12.3%，總誤差平均值約31.8%，整體表現大致可達到模式模擬規範要求。若能針對模式本土化參數修正及排放源資料完整性之考量加以修正增進其效能，TAPM模式應可運用於台灣地區，作為環境影響評估之決策參考。 The distribution of the pollutants in the atmosphere presents a quite complicated phenomenon. Only the combination of actual monitoring and modeling can bring further understanding about atmospheric chemical and physical reactions. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) is a three-dimensional, nestable model of meteorological and air pollution phenomena. In recent years, it is broadly applied to the analysis of environmental impact statements and the air quality situation abroad. As far as we know, there has not yet been an appraisal and analysis focused on TAPM in Taiwan. Thus, by analyzing and evaluating TAPM behavior in coastal central Taiwan, we try to understand the applicability and the accuracy of this model in Taiwan.This investigation gathers monitoring data on meteorological phenomena and air quality in coastal central Taiwan. We also chose the tethersonde and TAPM data to simulate and analyze from the ground-level high ozone period, 19-24 October 2002. In order to understand the applicability of TAPM in Taiwan, we also make use of the Mesoscale Model, The Fifth-Generation (MM5) and The Taiwan Quality Model (TAQM) which has been tested in Taiwan, to make a comparison and analysis.The result shows that the TAPM can simulate well the distribution of the wind and temperature fields and the trend of them are generally the same as reality. The mean correlation coefficient is between 0.56 and 0.71 for the wind field, and the mean index-of-agreement (IOA) is between 0.61 and 0.65.Concerning the simulation of the temperature field, the result of modeling is good. The mean correlation coefficient is 0.82 and the mean IOA is 0.86. On the part of photochemical module, the ozone trends of TAPM simulated were as well as the observed, but the module output values still underestimated. The average overall bias (OB) is around -12.3% and the average gross error (GE) is about 31.8%. From the complete analysis and result, the model output statistics are approximately within the limits of the simulation standard. If the local parameters of model can be modified and pondered over the emission source data, TAPM can be applied in environmental impact assessment in Taiwan with some confidence in the future.
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