加入世界貿易組織 (World Trade Organization； WTO) 為我國政府 既定且積極爭取儘速達成的重要貿易政策。達成此一目標，貿易形態將會 有重大轉變，國際競爭將促使產業結構調整，國內製造業生產效能提升。 本研究假定製造業因此政策對環境影響，分兩部份探討，一為貿易差額效 應，一為生產效能改善效應。貿易差額效應以學術機構對加入WTO各製造 業貿易差額為依據。生產效能改善效應以能源密集度為生產效能指標，比 較我國製造業與日本生產效能差異，以此差距折衷點視為我國加入WTO後 ，製造業即將達到之生產效能。以上述為前提，並預估民國九十年各製造 業產值?能源密集度?生產效能改善幅度，可得各製造業使用環境資源及 污染產出個別效應之變化量。稻米生產業則依逐年放寬之輸入配額，核算 成水稻田面積，輔以單位面積之 各項農化資材使用量及環境效益為評估 方法。本研究以製造業之空氣、水及廢棄物為分析項目，生產效能改善對 環境資源及污染物減量效應約為貿易差額效應7∼12倍。減量顯著產業為 鋼鐵業?低度貿易製造業（紙及紙製品 業?印刷業?石油及煤製品業? 非金屬礦物製品業）及化學製品業等。製造業減低環境資源 耗用及污染 物產出之所有社會成本達 1,100億元，其中尤以空氣污染物減量佔總社會 成本之 75％為最。稻米生產業，則可挪用灌溉用水，但亦喪失水稻田涵 養水資源效益。入會後第六年，省下灌溉用水價值為46億元，喪失涵養水 資源?調節微氣候等水稻田環境效益34億元。 Our nation has been actively seeking to become a member of World Trade Organization. It is believed that a full membership will cause large changes in trade pattern and, for the enhancement of competition, speed up the restructuring of industry and improvement in production efficiency. This study estimates the environmental impacts of a WTO membership in two parts. First, there are environmental impacts caused by the changes in import/export. Sectorial import/export changes are based on the estimate by other researchers. These data multiplied by the emission factors and energyand water requirement per unit production are the estimate of the environmental impacts. Rice import is assumed to followed a preset schedule in percent, a Japanese copy. The membership is assumed to be effective in the year of 2001. The second part of the environmental impacts is caused by the enhancement of production efficiency that is needed for our domestic industry to be competitive. Production efficiency is measured by the industrial energy bintensity. It is assumed that our industry will rapidly improve efficiency closing one-half gap of energy intensity between Japan and our nation. The study estimates the nation''s environment will be better-off by an amount equal to NT$110 billion if we join in the WTO. About 75% of this amount is in the improvement of air quality. Because of relative low production efficiency observed in our industry, bulk of the environmental improvement is realized by efficiency enhancement. Thus, the large effect of WTO membership is to equalize the technology world-wide in general and force our domestic industry towards more efficient in particular.
