中文摘要食品展售期之正確性密切關係著消費者之權益及食品業者的利潤。食品展售期之緩衝時間太短，會增加業者風險；設定展售期過於保守，則食品銷售時間短，使業者利潤減少。所以食品展售期的安全管理對業者與消費者而言皆非常重要。運用預測模式，能適時反映不同環境條件下，展售食品之品質變化，比實際檢驗法更快速且具彈性，並可依不同情況立刻調整處理。本研究建立一食品展售期的預測模式供業者決定食品之展售期；此模式係採用Food MicroModel之資料庫，以模擬語言架構一依溫度波動模擬品質變化的程式，藉由模擬結果來決定合理的食品展售期。本研究選定Ａ公司之香腸（代表展售期長）及鮮乳（代表展售期短）為實例模擬對象，經模擬後發現Ａ公司香腸流通系統在以非蛋白質分解型肉毒桿菌產毒機率的評量下，於產品展售期60天內應無危害的可能。鮮乳流通系統在李斯特菌感染的評量下，於產品展售期8天內應無危害的機會。香腸調低pH值為5.6可延長展售期約九倍。運送車及超市的溫度升高會縮減展售期。我國CAS及GMP對冷藏食品流通系統的規定為不得超過7℃；控制整個流通系統保持在7℃定溫下，檢測其安全性，發現香腸展售期縮減為35天，而鮮乳縮減為6天。 The accuracy of food product shelf life is closely related to consumer''s right and food business''s profit. Short buffer period of product''s shelf life will make food business to take risk to sell such product. Keeping conservative shelf life will cause the food product a short time for sale, and lower food business''s profit. Therefore, the safety management of food product''s shelf life is considered to be very important both to consumer and food business. A predictive model is considered to be able to response timely the quality changes of the food product on shelf under different environment. It will get results much faster and flexible than an analytical method, and can also be adjusted according to different environmental conditions. The objective of this study is to establish a predictive computer simulation model for the food business to determine product shelf life, by using the database of Food MicroModel . A simulation program of quality-evaluation which is concerned with the fluctuation of temperature will be developed with the results of the simulation. Reasonable shelf life will be determined.The result of simulating sausage distribution of the company by considering nonproteolytic Clostridium botulinum growth is safe in sixty days. The same result of milk by considering Listeria monocytogenes infection is safe in eight days. When sausage has a lower pH value 5.6 , it can extend its safe shelf life about nine times. The raise of distribution temperature of boxcar and supermarket will decrease shelf life . In the phenomena of keeping distribution temperature in 7℃would have a worse result than fluctuating temperature in real distribution . -1 -aA Study On the Safety Management of Product Shelf Life in the Chilled Food Distribution System
