企業營收與經濟指標之關聯性探討—以U公司之汽車電子事業群為例

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Title:	企業營收與經濟指標之關聯性探討—以U公司之汽車電子事業群為例
Other Titles:	The Relationship between Economic indicators and Revenue -- An Empirical Study of U Company AE Business Groups
Authors:	許志榮 Hsu, Chih-Jung
Contributors:	王凱立 Wang, Kai-Li 東海大學管理碩士在職專班
Keywords:	汽車電子、月營收、單根檢定、共整合、總體經濟 Automotive Electronics、Monthly Revenue、Unit Root Test、Co-integration、Macroeconomics
Date:	2010
Issue Date:	2011-01-19T03:24:52Z (UTC)
Abstract:	本研究以汽車供應鏈中之電子代工廠商與整車廠為主體，根據汽車電子的產業特性及現況，探討汽車電子代工廠受何種總體經濟與產業特性因素影響，以進一步瞭解主導汽車電子產業營收的訊息來源，是否對於預測汽車電子整體需求量有所幫助。另也因汽車產業上中下游零組件配套廠商關係愈來愈密切，因此歐美與日本主要汽車廠商的產業型態及股價表現，都可作為預測需求之重要參考依據；研究期間利用2007年初至2010年4月之月資料進行分析，除考量個案公司在汽車電子事業群之營收表現外，並分析美系與日系汽車供應鏈中整車廠的個股股價與個案公司營收之關聯性，以探討不同供應鏈體系下之股價變動，是否為個案公司之領先指標。研究方法即利用究利用單根檢定、共整合檢定、向量自我迴歸模型(衝擊反應)、誤差修正模型等計量方法建立實證模型，探討在不同構面之經濟指標變動，哪一個是主要帶動個案公司之營收表現，且是預測汽車電子產業在總體經濟變動下之最佳因素。實證結果所獲得的重要結論如下：1. 在總體面、產業特性面及市場面之經濟因素與個案公司汽車電子事業群月營收間具有共整合關係，表示這些變數波動間存在長期均衡關係。2. 以總體經濟構面來看，與個案U公司月營收呈現正向顯著影響的變數有美國消費者物價指數、日本工業生產指數、日本失業率，與個案U公司月營收呈現負向顯著影響的變數有美國工業生產指數與日本消費者物價指數，此結果顯示美國與日本民眾消費者習性的不同，對於汽車供應鏈內廠商的營收有明顯不同。加上政府及廠商對車市的補救措施奏效下，即使在整體經濟環境不好且失業率高，車廠的營收仍相對提高。3. 在汽車產業相關因素方面，與個案U公司月營收呈現正向顯著影響的變數有杜拜原油價格，及北美鋼鐵價格指數，呈現負向顯著影響的變數有美國汽車銷售量，及亞洲鋼鐵價格指數，此結果顯示環保及能源耗盡的議題逐漸被重視，此趨勢造成了汽車電子在節能車輛的裝載率比率提高。另在汽車安全領域逐漸被政府、車廠及消費者重視，亦使得安全性的汽車電子在低銷售量情況下仍緩慢成長。再以美系與日系兩大供應鏈族群分析得知，日系汽車供應鏈採取JIT零庫存的策略模式奏效，當鋼鐵價格越低，反應在汽車售價亦越明顯，整體供應鏈也因此受惠。而美系供應鏈則採用MRP模式策略，將高成本轉嫁到上游廠商的情況下，車廠相對成本負擔較低，使得汽車零組件商在美系供應鏈裡有正向相關。4. 以市場面較具代表性的整車廠個股來看，除豐田(Toyota)的股價為負關外，其餘兩家(Ford與Honda)皆與U公司汽車電子營收呈現正相關。豐田(Toyota)在誤差修正模型裡為負顯著誤差修正項，判定其對U公司汽車事業群的營收有落後的顯著相關。顯示整車廠股價變動為個案公司營收之領先指標。 This study investigates what macroeconomic and industry factors have influenced automotive electronics OEM companies by taking into account the unique characteristics of the automotive electronics industry and its current situation. Placing the emphasis on electronics OEM companies and automobile manufacturers in the automobile supply chain, this study presents results that will help understand whether the leading source of information that determines the revenue of the automotive electronics industry is useful for predicting the overall demand. In addition, due to the increasingly close ties among companies in the auto parts industry, the industry structure and stock performance of leading automakers in Europe, U.S. and Japan can be useful in demand forecast. By analyzing the monthly data collected from early 2007 to April 2010, this study not only takes into account the revenue of the automotive electronics business group of U company, but also analyzes the correlation between the stock prices of automakers in the U.S. and Japanese automobile supply chains and the revenue of U company. This facilitates understanding whether the stock prices of automakers in different supply chains are the leading indicator for the revenue of U company. This study employs such quantitative methods as Unit Root Test, Co-integration Test, Vector Autoregression (Impulse Analyze), and Vector Error Correction to establish a regression model, in order to investigate which economic indicator is the leading factor that affects the revenue performance of the U company, as well as the best reference in automotive electronics industry forecasts under macroeconomic change. Major findings from empirical results are summarized as follows: 1. There is a co-integration relationship between economic factors in the macro, industry characteristics and market aspects, and the monthly revenue of the AE business group of U company. This indicates that there exists a long-term balancing relation between these fluctuating variables. 2. From the perspective of macroeconomics, variables that positively affect the monthly revenue of U company include U.S. CPI, Japan IPI, and the unemployment rate in Japan; variables that negatively affect the monthly revenue of U company include U.S. IPI and Japan CPI. This suggests that economic variables fluctuating have different effect in U.S and Japan market. Furthermore, thanks to the government policy and automakers’ strategies in automobile market, even in the challenging economic environment with high unemployment rate the revenue of automakers still increases. 3. Among the automobile industry-related factors, variables that positively affect the monthly revenue of U company include DBO and North America CRU; variables that negatively affect the monthly revenue of U company include U.S. auto sales and Asia CRU. The results show that environmental and energy issues have gradually gained attention, which contributes to the higher percentage of green vehicles that are equipped with automotive electronics. Furthermore, since automotive safety has gained increasing attention from the government, automakers, and consumers, a slow growth in the sale of safety automotive electronics is observed amidst low auto sales. The analysis of U.S. and Japanese automobile supply chains reveals that the JIT inventory strategy adopted by the Japanese automobile supply chain worked well – the lower steel prices are reflected on the auto prices, and the whole supply chain is benefited. Besides, the U.S. automobile supply chain adopted the MRP strategy, shifting the cost to upstream companies and reducing the cost for automakers, which contributes to the positive correlation of the auto parts companies in the U.S. automobile supply chain. 4. Studying the stock prices of representative automakers in the market reveals that except Toyota, whose stock prices exhibit negative correlation, both Ford and Honda’s stock prices show positive correlation with the monthly automotive electronics revenue of U company. In the Vector Error Correction model, Toyota shows significant negative error correction, which suggests that it has a lagged significant correlation with the revenue of U company’s automobile business group. The findings suggest that the stock prices of automakers are the leading indicator for the revenue of the company under study.
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