新南向政策（New Southern Policy）從2016年頒布至今，是否影響國內勞動市場，係本文所關注主題。本文使用2015-2017年台灣上市上櫃公司對外投資之資料，區分母公司及海內外公司（合併報表），使用反覆近似無關迴歸模型(Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression model,簡稱 ISUR)，推論國際化(尤其是新南向)對台灣勞方所得與就業效果的影響。並揭露台灣之企業前往新南向地區投資之前十名。研究發現：(1)在新南向的佈局之下，不論增加新南向投資金額或是子公司家數，皆顯示會降低母公司之勞方所得；新增子公司數則有利於海內外就業機會。(2)外銷同時有利於母公司和海內外公司之就業機會。(3)實證研究也顯示，台灣企業至新南向增加子公司平均數，大於在中國增加子公司平均數，顯示新南向政策已發揮分散市場之初步績效，但卻要承擔對國內勞動市場之可能負面衝擊。 Since the promulgation of the new south-bound policy in 2016, has it affected the domestic employment effect and labor income? This study uses the information on the TEJ listed OTC companies in 2015-2017, distinguishes the parent company from the domestic and overseas companies, and adopts the ISUR model to estimate the impact on Taiwan's labor income and employment effectiveness. The study result shows: (1) Under the new South-bound, regardless of the amount of investment in the new south-bound or the number of subsidiaries invested, the labor income of the parent company will be reduced. (2) Exports are beneficial to the employment opportunities of Taiwan's parent companies and employment opportunities for overseas companies. (3) Empirical research also shows that the average number of investment subsidiaries to south-way is greater than the average number of investment subsidiaries in China, means the policy is effective.
