供應商選擇一直是供應鏈管理的領域中一個重要的議題，目前有關供應商選擇的研究，大多是以企業與供應商合作關係較穩定的供應鏈環境為主要的研究範疇；而利用歷史資料預估供應商可能達交表現的作法也一直是常用的方法。 但是在國內航太產業中，因為訂單來源不足導致企業與供應商之間無法建立長期穩定的關係，而企業在選擇供應商時通常只單純以價格競標的方式做為選擇依據。因此經常發生供應商因產能負荷不足或是製程能力不穩定而造成無法準時達交的情況，使企業的外包成本大幅增加。 基於上述的原因，本研究欲以系統化的角度提出一個適用與航太產業的供應商選擇架構，並結合模型基礎與外包成本效益設計一個供應商評估模型。本評估模型將事前估算供應商可能造成的額外外包成本做為選擇的依據；並以考慮不確定性的模擬方式預估供應商的可能達交表現以取代歷史資料的推估，預防供應商因產能負荷不足或是製程能力不穩定這兩個企業無法事前得知的原因，進而造成的錯誤選擇，並期望以合理的價格選擇適任的外包供應商。 The selection of supplier is always an important issue in supply chain management (SCM) area. Previous studies of supplier selection focused mostly on such situations when enterprises and their suppliers had stable relationship. Moreover, it’s also common to use those historical data to estimate suppliers’ possible performance about on-time delivery. For the Aerospace Industry in Taiwan, however, the insufficient sub-contract order quantity made it difficult to build long-term and stable relationship between enterprises and suppliers. Resulting in a situation that the enterprise can only select its suppliers based on the bidding price. Therefore, delayed delivery is often happened due to suppliers’ insufficient capacity or unstable manufacturing process capability. Based on the above reasons, our study was intended to establish a systematic supplier selection framework that applicable to the Aerospace Industry. Combined Model-Base with outsourcing cost benefit to design a supplier estimation model. This model can estimate the extra outsourcing cost before suppliers selection, and it can be used as a basis to select supplier. This model can use uncertain simulation to estimate suppliers’ possible performance on on-time delivery, replaced the use of historical data estimation. Use of this model can prevent in-adequate suppliers selection due to suppliers’ insufficient capacity or unstable manufacturing process capability. Adequate suppliers, then, can be selected based on reasonable price.
